The Summit, presented
by NPES, The Association for Suppliers of Printing, Publishing and Converting
Technologies, combined the 26th edition of the PRINT OUTLOOK economic
forecasting conference with the NPES Spring Conference and the Spring meeting of
PRIMIRSM, the Print Industries Market Information and Research Organization.
PRINT OUTLOOK delivered a day-and-a-half
review of how print is performing in the communications marketplace today and
what lies ahead, both for the industry and for the American
economy.
A series of speakers concurred that sustained
economic growth and smart adoption of technologies to create new value-added
services have helped put the US printing industry in its strongest position in
many years.
Opening PRINT OUTLOOK, NPES vice president, William Smythe says, "I don't think I have been this optimistic in at least 15
years. The last time we met, we had seen from 2004 that it looked like the
industry was starting to come back. Now, it is clear we have had sustained
growth."
Ronnie Davis, chief economist at PIA/GATF,
agrees, noting that US printers' sales reached US$171bn in 2006, a gain of
3.3 per cent over the previous year and a major rebound from a low point of about
US$156bn in 2002.
Davis says PIA/GATF forecasts
increases of about 1.5 per cent in 2007 and 2.5 per cent in 2008. Significant
growth is coming from new digital and ancillary services printers are adding
to their portfolios, Davis says, adding, "This is still an opportunity
industry."
Joseph Truncale, president of NAPL, says that "sales grew at their fastest rate in eight years in 2006 and will
continue to grow, although at a noticeably slower pace, in 2007. Volume has
finally regained pre-recession levels, and we've even regained some pricing
power and profitability.”
He also described how successful
printers are adapting their businesses to structural change in the industry,
along with some of the barriers that still remain, including the need to develop
"a whole skill set for the sales force" in many
companies.
Keynote speaker, Dr Joseph Webb, says that
"all media are experimental today because the relationships between them have
changed so dramatically."
He says the challenge for printers was not only to be 'modern' today but also to "figure out how to be modern 18 months from now. It's not
your competitors you have to worry about, it's your clients. You have to find a
way to stay ahead of them."
NPES Consulting Economist, Michael Evans, predicts there will be a slowdown in the US economy
in 2007, but no recession. He says media coverage of recent reverses in
mortgage lending was overstated and these developments did not represent a major
threat to the total economy.
A highlight of the PRIMIR
meeting was the preliminary presentation of the findings of the group's latest
study, "The World Wide Market for Print," which forecast the national and
regional markets likely to show the strongest growth in the near future.
The
presentation includes a description of the top 10 future growth markets
worldwide. The study is expected to be completed and the final report
distributed to PRIMIR members in the American spring.
In addition,
PRIMIR attendees heard an update on the recently completed study, "Effect of
Postal Reform on the Demand for Print." Between 2007 and 2008, postal reform
and rate increases will remove between 800m and 900m catalogues from
the US mail stream, along with up to 350m periodicals and 3bn pieces
of direct mail advertising, the study consultants projected. In many areas,
however, a "wait and see" approach will be required as details of the new rate
setting process emerge.
The PRIMIR gathering also included
meetings of committees guiding ongoing studies in such areas as "Mega Printers'
Impact on the North American Print Market," "Global Trends in Packaging
Affecting North American Converters and Suppliers," and "Trends in Sheetfed
Lithography."
NPES is a US trade association
representing 460 companies that manufacture and distribute equipment, software
and supplies used across the workflow of nearly every printing, publishing and
converting process. It is a co-sponsor of PRINT, GRAPH EXPO, PackPrintSM
and CONVERTING EXPO.
The Print Industries Market Information and
Research Organization (PRIMIR), provides in-depth research and analysis for the
graphic communications industry. Formed in 2005 when the NPES Market Research
Committee merged with GAMIS, PRIMIR annually provides its members with current,
relevant market data and detailed information on graphic arts and related
fields.
